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Chapter 2: Population statistics: Belfast and Donegall Pass, 1971-2001
Ian Shuttleworth, Chris Lloyd and Gemma Catney
Executive Summary
Key Findings and Recommendations
Chapter 1: Introduction and Background to the Study
Chapter 3: Internal Migration and Community Dynamics
Chapter 4: Housing and the Environment
Chapter 5: Health and Wellbeing
Chapter 6: Children and Young People
Chapter 7: Education in Context
Chapter 8: Education and Training Issues in Donegall Pass
Chapter 9: The Role of Community in Regeneration
Appendix 1 Donegall Pass Profile
Appendix 2 Focus Group Topics/Questions
Appendix 3 Recruitment Form
CHAPTER TWO - POPULATION STATISTICS: BELFAST AND DONEGALL PASS, 1971-2001
Key Points
In relation to Belfast:
- there has been a 33% decline in the population of Belfast between 1971 and 2001, with 414,482 individuals recorded in 1971 and only 277,165 in 2001;
- there has been an increase in the proportion of Catholics with respect to Protestants. In 1971, of those individuals classified as either Protestant or Catholic some 31% were Catholic while in 2001 the figure was 52%;
- the percentage of people under the age of 20 was smaller in 2001 (26%) than it was in 1971 (34%). The reverse is true of people over the age of 60 with figures of 16% for 1971 and 18% in 2001; and
- in terms of housing tenure, the proportion of owner-occupied properties is larger in 2001 (at 52%) than it was in 1971 (at 42%).
In relation to Donegall Pass:
- from 1971 to 1991 there was a marked decline in the population of the area with a further, although less marked, decline from 1991 to 2001. The population of the area in 2001 is some 29% of the 1971 figure.
- the proportion of people under the age of 20 has clearly declined – in 1971 some 34% of individuals in the area were under 20. By 2001 this figure had fallen to 21%. The proportion of people over the age of 60 has increased, with some 19% of the population in 1971 and 26% in 2001. This trend, in terms of age, is the same as in Belfast, as a whole, but it is more marked in Donegall Pass.
Introduction
In this chapter, a variety of statistics from the Northern Ireland Census of Population are reported. The objectives are to show (i) how the population of Belfast generally and Donegall Pass specifically have changed over time and (ii) to compare the particular characteristics of the population of Donegall Pass, as reported in the 2001 Census of Population, to the rest of Belfast. Here, Belfast is defined as the area covered by the current Belfast Local Government District (LGD). The population data summarised derive from counts provided over 100 m grid squares as a part of the Censuses of 1971, 1991 and 2001. Figures from the 1981 Census are not reported due to marked under-enumeration in that year.
The boundary of the Belfast LGD and the 2001 Output Areas (OAs) that cover Donegall Pass are shown in Figure 1. The grid square centroids that fall within the selected OAs were selected and the associated statistics extracted.
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Figure 1. 2001 Output Areas (OAs) covering Donegall Pass, Local Government District (LGD) boundaries are also shown with the Belfast LGD boundary in a heavy line.
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1. Population change through time
The analysis is based on a range of key variables. These are total population, total number of households, number of Catholics, number of Protestants, number of people under 20, number of people over 60, number of owner occupied households, number of public authority owned households and number of economically active males. These variables were selected to enable consideration of a range of characteristics of the populations of Belfast and Donegall Pass specifically. Table 1 reports the number of individuals or households in each category for each of 1971, 1991 and 2001. It should be noted that the 2001 Census is different in character to the previous censuses. It, unlike the 1971 and 1991 censuses, is a one-number census. Under this scheme, the undercount (that is, counts for people who have not submitted completed census forms) is estimated and added to the census counts. Formally, census counts did not sum to national and local authority population estimates. This change should be taken into account when assessing the figures presented below, although the results are assumed to be robust. The definition of the religion categories requires some clarification. For 1971 and 1991, Protestants include the categories Presbyterian, Church of Ireland, Methodist and Other Denominations. Other Denominations included Other Christians but also some other non-Christian religions. For 2001, Protestants included Presbyterian, Church of Ireland, Methodist and Other Christians (including Christian related). Counts of Protestants excluding those in the Other Denominations (1971 and 1991) and Other Christians (2001) categories are also summarised.
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1971
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1991
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2001
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Total population
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414,482
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263,799
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277,165
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Total number of households
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119,992
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96,511
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113,438
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Number of Catholics
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107,815
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96,680
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109,141
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Number of Protestants inc. OD/OC
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236,017
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117,793
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102,621
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Number of Protestants exc. OD/OC
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211,140
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99,950
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89,754
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Number of people under 20
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139,978
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72,035
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72,189
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Number of people over 60
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66,857
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51,787
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49,978
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Number of HH owner occupied
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50,380
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52,070
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58,646
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Number HH public authority owned
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31,009
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32,058
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33,852
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Economically active males
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102,409
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60,313
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55,354
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Table 1. Counts for key variables in Belfast. HH is households. OD is other denominations (for 1971 and 1991), OC is other Christian (for 2001).
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The figures illustrate the decline in the population of Belfast between 1971 and 2001, with 414,482 individuals recorded in 1971 and only 277,165 in 2001. The increase in the proportion of Catholics with respect to Protestants (including Other Denominations/Other Christians) is also clear. In 1971, of those individuals classified as either Protestant or Catholic some 31% were Catholic while in 2001 the figure was 52%. The percentage of people under the age of 20 was smaller in 2001 (26%) than it was in 1971 (34%). The reverse is true of people over the age of 60 with figures of 16% for 1971 and 18% in 2001. This suggests that Belfast is increasingly an area dominated by younger adults and the middle aged, with a small increase in the elderly. In terms of housing tenure, the proportion of owner-occupied properties is larger in 2001 (at 52%) than it was in 1971 (at 42%).
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1971
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1991
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2001
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Total population
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3,510
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986
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1,006
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Total number of households
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1,200
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505
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568
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Number of Catholics
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820
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122
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105
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Number of Protestants inc. OD/OC
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2,333
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608
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561
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Number of Protestants exc. OD/OC
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2,190
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504
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506
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Number of people under 20
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1,202
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199
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216
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Number of people over 60
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652
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282
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263
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Number of HH owner occupied
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357
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107
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135
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Number HH public authority owned
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106
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329
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346
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Economically active males
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922
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202
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215
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Table 2. Counts for key variables in Donegall Pass. HH is households. OD is other denominations (for 1971 and 1991), OC is other Christian (for 2001).
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The situation in Donegall Pass mirrors, in some respects, the rest of Belfast - but there are some notable differences. From 1971 to 1991 there was a marked decline in the population of the area with a further, although less marked, decline from 1991 to 2001. The population of the area in 2001 is some 29% of the 1971 figure. The figures suggest a decline in the proportion of Catholics in the area with some 26% in 1971 and 16% in 2001. It is important to bear in mind that the area defined as Donegall Pass for the purposes of this report may be debated and changes in the area covered will affect the results. In terms of age profiles, the proportion of people under the age of 20 has clearly declined – in 1971 some 34% of individuals in the area were under 20. By 2001 this figure had fallen to 21%. The proportion of people over the age of 60 has increased with some 19% of the population in 1971 and 26% in 2001. The trend, in terms of age, is the same as in Belfast as a whole but it is more marked in Donegall Pass.
Another way of assessing population change is to examine maps of selected variables. Figures 2, 3 and 4 show the population of Belfast in 1971, 1991 and 2001 respectively. The maps suggest a decline in the density of the population in the city. That there has been a decline in the population of Belfast over the last thirty years or so is well known, but the use of the 100m grid square data enables more detailed locally-based observations.
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Figure 2. Population in 1971.
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Figure 3. Population in 1991.
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Figure 4. Population in 2001.
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The figures presented in Table 1 suggested a marked decline in the proportion of Protestants (here, excluding Other Denominations/Other Christians) in the city from 1971 to 1991 with further decline from 1991 to 2001. Figures 5, 6, 7 and 8 show the proportions of Protestants across Belfast. Figures 5, 6 and 7 refer to the stated religion of individuals while Figure 8 refers to their perceived community background (this latter question was asked for the first time in the 2001 Census). Note that the maps for 2001 appear to show a greater spread of population than the 1971 and 1991 maps, but this is partly a function of the differences between the 2001 Census and the earlier censuses.
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Figure 5. Percentage of Protestants (excluding Other Denominations) in 1971.
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Figure 6. Percentage of Protestants in (excluding Other Denominations) 1991.
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Figure 7. Percentage of Protestants (excluding Other Christians) in 2001: religion
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Figure 8. Percentage of Protestants in 2001: community background
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The figures indicate a clear reduction in the proportion of Protestants in the city from 1971 to 1991 and from 1991 to 2001. The reduction is most marked in the north west of the city and to a lesser degree in the south east.
Figures 9, 10 and 11 show the percentage of owner occupier households in Belfast. The main feature is a reduction in the proportion of owner occupier households in the centre of the city.
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Figure 9. Percentage of owner occupier households in 1971
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Figure 10. Percentage of owner occupier households in 1991
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Figure 11. Percentage of owner occupier households in 2001
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2. Donegall Pass and Belfast in 2001
Population decline from 1971 to 2001 is much more marked in Donegall Pass than in Belfast as a whole. The 2001 Belfast population is some 67% of the 1971 value, representing a considerable decline. However, the 2001 Donegall Pass population is less than 29% of the 1971 value. The chapter now focuses on the situation in 2001 in particular.
Table 3 repeats, for clarity, some of the information given in Tables 1 and 2. Counts for 2001, for both Belfast as a whole and Donegall Pass in particular, are given for comparative purposes. Values are also expressed as percentages where appropriate.
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2001: Belfast
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2001: Donegall Pass
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Sum
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%
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Sum
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%
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Total population
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277,165
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1,006
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Total number of households
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113,438
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568
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Number of Catholics
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109,141
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51.5*
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105
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15.8*
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Number of Protestants
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102,621
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48.5*
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561
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84.2*
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Number of people under 20
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72,189
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26
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216
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21.5
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Number of people over 60
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49,978
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18
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263
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26.1
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Number of HH owner occupied
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58,646
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51.7
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135
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13.4
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Number HH public authority owned
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33,852
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29.8
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346
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34.4
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Economically active males
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55,354
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20
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215
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21.4
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Table 3. Counts for key variables in Belfast and Donegall Pass in 2001. Sum is the total number for each category. * Note that the percentages are calculated from those who are stated to be Catholic or Protestant and not from the total population.
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The most obvious difference is in the proportion of Catholics and Protestants, with a small majority of Catholics in Belfast as a whole. The age figures suggest that the population of Donegall Pass is older than that of Belfast as a whole. In Donegall Pass, the proportion of people in public authority housing is much larger than in Belfast as a whole.
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